Theories Can Break Through Brick Walls
- Kim Richardson
- Dec 5, 2025
- 6 min read
Updated: Dec 6, 2025
Some of my biggest genealogy breakthroughs happened because I wrote down and explored every possible answer—even the ones that seemed completely ridiculous.
Genealogy is full of surprises. Sometimes, the answer to a long-standing research question comes from the most unexpected place. And yet, too often, researchers get stuck because they only pursue the theories that seem obvious or logical at first glance.
If you’re facing a tough genealogy problem, one of the most effective strategies you can use is hypothesis testing. Instead of assuming one theory is correct and chasing it blindly, create an ongoing list of every possible explanation. Then, systematically work through each one, trying to prove it true or false. Even if you prove a theory is false, that’s progress! Every eliminated possibility brings you one step closer to the real answer.
Step 1: Make a List of Every Possible Theory
Start by brainstorming every possible explanation for your research question. Using a mind map may help with this. For more on mind mapping, check out From Frustration to Findings: How Mind Maps Can Help Solve Genealogy Brick Walls.
Don’t censor yourself. Write down everything—no matter how far-fetched or impossible it seems.
For example, let’s say you’re trying to figure out who the parents of your great-great-grandmother were. You might come up with theories like:
She was the daughter of John and Mary Smith (the family she lived near in the 1850 census).
She was illegitimate, and her birth parents never married.
She was adopted or taken in by another family.
Her real last name was different, and she changed it at some point.
She was left out of her father’s will because of a family dispute.
Her parents died young, and she was raised by relatives.
Her name was recorded incorrectly, and she’s actually listed in records under a different spelling.
Some of these may seem silly. Some may feel unlikely. But I’ve learned the hard way that the "wild" theories are often the ones that lead to the answer.
Step 2: Systematically Work Through Each Theory
Once you have your list, tackle each theory one by one in a structured way.
Gather evidence that could support it.
Look for records that might prove the theory true (birth records, census records, wills, land deeds, etc.).
Search for indirect evidence—clues that point in that direction even if direct proof is missing.
Look for evidence that could disprove it.
Try to prove your own theory wrong! If you can find solid proof against the theory, you know it’s not the right answer.
For example, if your theory is that your ancestor was the daughter of John and Mary Smith, but you find a will stating they had no children, that theory is likely false.
Make notes on what you find.
Keep track of what you researched and whether the theory still seems possible.
If you find new leads while investigating one theory, add them to your list.
Step 3: If a Theory Is Proven False, Cross It Off
Eliminating a theory isn’t failure—it’s progress. Every wrong theory you remove from the list narrows the possibilities and which pushes you closer to the truth.
For example, if you were considering the idea that your ancestor was adopted but you find evidence that she was, in fact, raised by her biological parents, you can safely cross that adoption theory off. That means you don’t have to waste more time going down the wrong path and spend more time going down the right ones.
Step 4: Rank Your Remaining Theories
Once you’ve tested each theory, rank the ones that are still possible from most likely to least likely.
If a theory has multiple supporting records, rank it higher.
If it’s based on weak or indirect evidence, keep it on the list but lower down.
If a theory hasn’t been proven false but seems unlikely, don’t discard it—just move it lower in priority.
Now, instead of feeling lost, you have a prioritized roadmap for your next steps.
Step 5: Apply Brick Wall Strategies to Your Most Likely Theories
At this stage, focus on your top-ranked theories and use all the brick wall research tricks you know to dig deeper. Here are some of my favorites:
Cluster Research: Study the friends, neighbors, and associates of your ancestor to see if they provide any clues.
Writing What You Think You Know: Writing is a top brick wall buster. When you write, you will see all the holes in your research. You'll think of more places to search and see any conflicts in what you have. All you have to do is start writing out why your theory is correct - explain why the proof you have is correct. It's eye opening.
Mind Mapping: Mind Mapping is a great "thinking" tool. For more info, check out this post: From Frustration to Findings: How Mind Maps Can Help Solve Genealogy Brick Walls.
If you’re unsure which strategies to use, the Brick Wall Buster Cards toolkit is a great resource. It walks you through specific techniques to break through stubborn research problems and can help guide you through this process.
Real-Life Example: How an Unlikely Theory Led Me to the Answer
A few years ago, I was researching an ancestor who seemed to appear out of nowhere in the 1870 census. No obvious connections to anyone else in the area. No parents I could connect from any state. Moving forward in time, he moved - a LOT. And changed occupations - a LOT (farmer, preacher, farmer, sawmill, farmer, doctor, preacher, doctor, farmer. WHEW!)
At first, I focused only on the most logical explanations:
Maybe he was from a nearby town, and I just hadn’t found the right records.
Maybe he was the son of a family with a misspelled last name.
Maybe his birth family managed to go through life never appearing in records.
But when I expanded my list of theories, I wrote down some that seemed ridiculous at the time:
Maybe he was disowned by his family. Why? I had no idea. But maybe that's why he suddenly appeared - he had to leave the area of his family.
He had epilepsy and it was apparently pretty bad. (That part is fact, not a theory. I found a medical discharge from military service and he'd not been able to serve most days due to "epilepsy which he'd suffered a long time.") So my theory was maybe his family placed him in an hospital if they could not care for him. Maybe he only appeared in records when he reached adulthood and left the facility.
Maybe he changed his identity and had another family somewhere.
Maybe he was a con artist and moved around to stay out of hot water with creditors.
Those sounded wild— and I ignored them for a long time. Out of desperation, I investigated those wild theories further using the best brick wall methods I know. I located a very similarly named man with the same birth date who was born in the same place and migrated the same path and served in the same military unit. That very similarly named man dropped off the Earth at the same time my guy seemed to "appear out of nowhere."
Once that "he had a double life" theory seemed supportable, I was able to focus and find plenty of evidence to prove it and nothing to disprove it. Finally! I had the answer! If I hadn’t forced myself to explore every theory—even the unlikely ones—I never would have found the truth: he changed his identity and abandoned his first family. He also was a scoundrel and moved from town to town - after he ran out of credit and/or was unruly enough to use up all the good will from the community.
Keep an Open Mind
The biggest mistake genealogists make is getting stuck in one way of thinking. If you assume you already know the answer (or dismiss ideas that seem too unusual), you might overlook the real solution sitting right in front of you. By listing out every possible theory, systematically testing them, and ranking what remains, you create a structured, logical way to move forward.
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If you’re feeling stuck, don’t forget to check out my Brick Wall Buster Cards—they’re packed with techniques that can help you push through those tough research problems
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